Ask anyone which of Canada’s biggest cities have the most overvalued real estate and every one of them would guess Toronto or Vancouver. The Bank of Montreal released data earlier this month that Ontario’s major metropolis is outdistancing BC’s in this regard, with a 76% average overvaluation that is presented in comparison to the average overvaluation of homes in the country overall at 38%. With interest rates rising (and another rate increase expected this week from the BoC) and the market becoming suppressed because of it, this overvaluation of homes is going to be more relevant in general. Particularly for anyone looking to sell a home and having expectations as to what is should sell for.
That said, the one factor that will keep the dip from being way too severe is the fact that the demand for housing will insulate home values to a fairly considerable extent. Enough to prevent the average homeowner’s concern about the depreciating equity they have in their home? Quite possibly, but that really does in large part depend on where you live. As a realtor you will be well served to have a strong understanding of the potential ramifications of declining home values in relation to overvaluations for home in the area.
This is all part of being a knowledgeable professional, and that goes a long way in securing clients who are ready to trust you to the point that they will buy or sell a home through you. A good thing considering how it can be difficult for new realtors to build up their client base, but if that struggle is something you’re going through right now you will benefit greatly from becoming an agent with maximum insight into Canadian real estate where you live, and taking advantage of our online real estate lead generation system here at Real Estate Leads may be a wise choice too.
But back to topic, let’s look at these home overvaluation numbers from more of a countrywide perspective here, and see if there are others than can stay within striking distance of Hogtown.
Over 50% for All Ontario
It’s not just Toronto, and the BMO data from the same report shows that average home prices were 55.4% overvalued in Q1 for 2022, and industry experts and economists say having any entire market overvalued so highly is a fair sign that a correction of some sort IS needed. This is with the understanding that when shelter costs rise too high they redirect capital away from the productive economy. This is around the understanding that housing a non-productive investment, since it doesn’t produce anything.
Add the fact that the larger mortgages become, the more future income buyers have no choice to borrow. Doing so means they are spending big share of the economy’s future labor value. More indebted households means slower growth for the economy, and the same basics applies for people who are renting their homes. Consider as well that younger adults spend a much higher share of their income on goods and services than older ones.
These same experts say a correction in housing values and the economic ramifications of it can go one of two ways. Either prices fall in real terms and the economy’s healthy balance is restored quickly, or prices continue to disconnect through policy intervention until the end result is systemic failure. That likely comes with a financial crisis.
Highest Overvaluations in the Suburbs
Metro Toronto real estate may be estimated to by around 40% overvalued, but it is in the suburbs of the GTA where those overvaluations are seen to be highest – in some places as high as 74%.
Some numbers around that? Sure.
- Cottage country around Bancroft, Kawarthas, Muskoka-Haliburton, and South Georgian Bay is estimated to be 63% overvalued.
- Cities that are just outside what would be considered a ‘satellite’ city – examples being Barrie, Guelph, Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Niagara, Orillia, St. Catharines, and Windsor – come in as being near 76% overvalued, and that is really somewhat staggering considering the way homes in these areas have been valued going back as far as the post-war period.
Leaving Ontario, what about other areas of Canada?
- Quebec as a whole – 33% overvalued
- Atlantic Canada – 35% overvalued
- British Columbia – 21.4% overvalued (with a reminder that the Lower Mainland and Victoria certainly do not reflect the entirety of a very large Province)
- Manitoba – 12% overvalued
- Saskatchewan (-3.4%) and Alberta (-5%) are the two Provinces that buck the trend here and aren’t with overvalued property averages according to this same report
BC, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada are all estimated to be more than 20% Overvalued
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