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Recent talk of putting some control on the demand side of foreign investment in Canada

Published June 27, 2016 by Real Estate Leads

RealEstateLeads_TaxingForeginInvestments
Foreign investment is not the only problem with Vancouver’s stratospheric prices but proper taxation would help to fix Vancouver & Toronto’s home price inflation.

The most drastic fix, now being talked about, is to put a cap on Vancouver’s seemingly out-of-control home price inflation through some taxation on foreign real estate investors. It is logically about the most the effective way to simmer down Vancouver’s epic market rise; without precipitating a market collapse.

Stopping foreign investment entirely is not a nice, nor effective solution, as foreign investment is only one of the drivers of high prices; but it has been a quite noticeable one indeed.

So if our politicians can get their minds properly wrapped around the issue then some intelligent new taxing regulations could effectively put a damper on the recent run-away market behavior – which most experts are saying is a bubble that will eventually suddenly/remarkably pop.

When investors come in and purchase real estate who actually have no intention of living, nor working, in Canada, but instead principally as a profit-generating investment – that is the problem that needs to be addressed. A portion of the foreign investors are only involved to transfer funds internationally and/or make quick money.

In a nutshell what is being discussed is “taxing speculative activity”.

Australia and New Zealand & and other areas experiencing similar housing problems have successfully implemented foreign ownership tax rules and laws. Australia has made a rule that restricts foreign investors to purchase only *brand new* developments.

Australia is saying, that if you build something new, at least they are creating some extra GDP – some economic momentum, employing people, adding something to the economy for the benefit of all. If they are just playing the resale market, then they really not adding anything to the economy – only higher prices.

Vancouver faces a fundamental supply problem, as do many other large cities such as Toronto; so solutions like taxation are limited in how effect such changes may have.

Vancouver is an island … from a real estate perspective. In Vancouver, the supply can not be soon expanded, but taxation of foreign-non-resident speculation can help control Vancouver’s staggering home price inflation.

A solution to the drastic home inflation trend being seen in Vancouver and Toronto can be found by discouraging demand.

These aren’t our ideas – just a summary of what we see being discussed on real estate forums. What are some of your ideas? We would love to hear from you.

RealEstateLeads not only wishes to provide you new leads in real-time, but also pertinent and fresh market knowledge through our weekly updated blog.

 

As single family home prices keep rising, buyer’s interest into condos has been increasing

Published March 7, 2016 by Real Estate Leads

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Affordability in Canada’s most expensive cities has reached crisis levels. An average 1st time buyer in Vancouver now needs more than 10 years to save up for a down payment on a home. This is due to tough new federal mortgage rules.

As buyers in Toronto and Vancouver have struggled to get a foothold into the market for freestanding homes, condos have proved to be an increasingly affordable option for many. A surge of new condo construction has kept resale prices in check in many cities. Coupled with falling interest rates, buyers are now able to spend less of their income to afford a condo than in the past. It has fallen even more dramatically in markets such as Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal.

Spurred by low interest rates, steady income growth, and soaring prices of individual homes in Vancouver & Toronto have created a demand surge in condo construction.
In the Vancouver area, average resale house prices jumped nearly 14% over the past year to more than $950K. It now takes 109% of median pretax income to pay the aggregate the costs of a mortgage, property taxes & utilities on a typical freestanding home, according to a 4Q 2015 analysis by the Royal Bank of Canada.

Surging home prices and more difficult down-payment rules for insured mortgages took effect in the middle of February 2016. This set the stage for the typical 1st-time buyer in Vancouver now needing to save 10% of their pre-tax income for 132 months, or about 11 years, in order to afford the minimum down payment on a typical home; up from 90 months, or about 7 1/2 years, in the 4th quarter 2015.

In Toronto, the average 1st-time buyer would need to save for 77 months – more than 6 years – to afford the down payment on an average home. The cost of having a detached house now exceeds more than 70% of median household income in Toronto.

Owning a home has now become a luxury in Canada’s two hottest housing markets; accessible to independently wealthy buyers. According to recent trends, there little hope left for buyers that such conditions will change any time soon.

The rule changes in particular are pushing many 1st-time buyers into the condo market; which is currently more affordable for such buyers as there is an abundance of supply. Toronto & Hamilton are the only two major cities in which condo ownership has become more expensive over recent years. Surprisingly, even buyers in Vancouver are spending slightly less of their income on mortgage payments for condos than they did in the past. Monthly mortgage payments on a typical condo in the Vancouver area cost 34% of median pre-tax income.

Condo supply in Vancouver supply has been been increased to meet demand; so even in markets like Vancouver, condo prices have remained relatively stable over the past 5 years because of new condo construction.

In Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, condo ownership may be more affordable than buying a house; but it still commands a healthy premium to renting.

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Simmering hot Vancouver and Toronto markets push Canadian home sales higher in 4Q

Published November 30, 2015 by Real Estate Leads

Hot Property Home House for Sale Real Estate Building Sign
Over the course of the past year Toronto home sales gained 3% to 8,620. Vancouver home sales rose by 7.6% in October to 3,748; for a gain of 19% from 1 year ago.

Canada’s home sales figures expanded in November to the 2nd highest levels in 6 years as demand held strong in the persistently hot home markets in Vancouver and Toronto metro areas.

However, the upward momentum wasn’t shared across the provinces. There were a number of markets where sales posted a monthly increase and those where sales fell, about evenly split. Across the country, overall this past year, sales rose 0.1%.

Prices in Vancouver metro were up 15.4% over the year. Greater Toronto was up 10.4%.

Prices for homes nationally as sold in October was $454,867, up 8.2% driven by the Toronto and Vancouver markets.

Aside from the Toronto & Vancouver markets, the average was $338,923, up 2.4% from a year ago.

Bank of Montreal’s chief economist’s have reported that the housing market has split into 3 basic groups: 1) Vancouver and Toronto – hot as an oven baking bread, the Prairie areas sagging along with the decrease in price of oil, and a middle-ground group that includes areas like Montreal and Ottawa. Saskatoon, Regina , Edmonton, Calgary had all posted double-digit sales declines in October and so far in November. Strikingly, Calgary’s home sales decreased 36% per cent from the past year; similarly across much of Alberta & Saskatchewan.

Crude oil prices are currently around $45(US) per barrel after a climb up to about $62(US) a barrel back in June. Over the year, the price of crude has dropped majorly from above $110(US) one year ago.

Canadian buyers are still in the market mostly to buy detached homes; which have been in short supply in Vancouver and Toronto. At the end of October there were 5 1/2 months of national inventory, down from 5 3/4 months in September. The smaller supply and constant demand has ebbed home prices higher; despite the options in term of the availability of condominiums.

This past October saw a greater divergence of Vancouver pricing from the whole rest of the country.

Sales-to-new listings ratio was 58% in October across Canada. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 40-60% implies generally consistent and balanced housing market conditions.

What do you think the future is going to bring for all these markets? We’d love to hear your opinions. Free free to give us a call, even just to say hi, at 1-800-728-6577.